Macron refutes Trump's claim that Iranian power has been reduced to zero
As the US-Iran war enters its 13th day with no signs of an immediate resolution on the horizon, European Council President Antonio Costa has rushed to warn of what lies ahead—a prospect that undoubtedly causes terror within the "headquarters" of Western political and military officials. Day by day, it is becoming clear that the war in the Middle East, should it escalate into a war of attrition, will not only severely impact global energy and the economy but also overturn balances in other "hot spots" such as Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula. Many experts are already warning that critical weaponry, specifically Patriot and THAAD systems, are being exhausted, and that the Americans may soon be unable to defend their allies on all fronts—especially those where far more powerful "opponents" like Russia, China, and nuclear-armed North Korea lie in wait.
Only one winner
"So far, there is only one winner in this war – Russia," stated Antonio Costa in a speech to EU ambassadors in Brussels on March 10. "It is acquiring new resources to fund its war against Ukraine as energy prices rise. It gains from the diversion of military capabilities that might otherwise have been sent to support Kyiv. And it benefits from the reduced attention on the Ukrainian front as the conflict in the Middle East takes center stage," the European official pointed out.
Oil on fire
Indeed, between February 28, when the US and Israel launched the war against Iran, and March 10, oil prices skyrocketed by as much as 64%. On February 28, oil was priced at approximately $72.48 per barrel. By March 10, it reached a peak of $119.50 per barrel.
The Indian exception
Meanwhile, the US has issued a temporary 30-day "license" allowing Indians to purchase Russian crude oil. India had significantly reduced oil imports from Russia in recent months as part of trade negotiations with the US, as Washington had set this as a condition for removing a 25% additional tariff on New Delhi. Notably, for most of 2025, India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, trailing only China. Now, with the 30-day license, Indian imports of Russian oil are expected to surge again, providing Russia with a valuable revenue stream to fund the war in Ukraine. For most of 2025, India's monthly oil imports from Russia exceeded $5 billion.
Terror in Ukraine
In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is already issuing warnings that a long war in Iran could leave Ukraine defenseless. If the conflict in the Middle East is prolonged, "it will certainly affect supplies," Zelensky said earlier this month. "So far, everything is proceeding as planned, but of course we know that a long war—if it is long—and the intensity of hostilities will affect the number of air defense missiles for us. Everyone understands that for us, air defense missiles are our life," Zelensky added. Patriot missile interceptors are critical for Kyiv's air defense and for intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.
Zelensky wants 25 Patriot batteries
In fact, the Patriot systems have been so critical that Zelensky has repeatedly attempted to purchase more batteries from the US. In April of last year, Zelensky stated that Ukraine was ready to buy 10 Patriot systems. "It costs $15 billion. We are ready to pay. We will find the money and pay for them." In November 2025, Zelensky stated that Ukraine wanted to purchase 25 Patriot batteries. "Today, we want to order 25 Patriot systems from the US," Zelensky wrote on X, stating there is a "clear budgeted amount" for the acquisition and pleading with European "colleagues" to lend "their systems now and take ours back when they arrive from the manufacturers."
More Patriots fired in 5 days than in 3 years in Ukraine
However, a prolonged war in the Middle East could mean that Ukraine will struggle to receive regular supplies of interceptors even for its existing Patriot batteries. The rapid pace at which Israel, the US, and their Gulf allies are "burning" through air defense missile stockpiles means there may soon be a global shortage of Patriot interceptors. Even a temporary blockage of supplies for Ukraine could lead to the loss of territory that has been heroically defended over the last four years. According to the New York Times, the US and its allies have consumed over 800 anti-ballistic missiles from the MIM-104 Patriot long-range air defense systems, valued at $2.4 billion, in just the first five days of hostilities with Iran. Notably, this exceeds the estimated total number of Patriot interceptors launched throughout the entire Russia-Ukraine war, where the system has been in use for nearly three years, further exacerbating the severe shortage of available interceptors. Ukrainian official Dmytro Lytvyn, an advisor to Zelensky, told the New York Times that Kyiv has received approximately 600 missiles for the American Patriot air defense system since the start of Russia's invasion.
Thousands of Iranian drones and missiles
Patriot interceptors were used to defend against approximately 2,000 Iranian drones and 500 missiles targeting Israel and Gulf nations. However, Iran still possesses a very large arsenal of ballistic missiles and thousands of Shahed drones. If the conflict enters a "war of attrition" phase, it could further strain the already limited supply chains for Patriot interceptors.
US to choose between allies
According to The Atlantic, US military leaders may soon be forced to choose between protecting troops and civilians near Iran and maintaining US operational readiness against larger, more stable threats from Russia and China. The US manufactured an average of 270 advanced Patriot missiles per year from 2015 to 2024, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). However, Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 MSEs in 2025, and the current production capacity for PAC-3 interceptors is approximately 600. This means the US and its allies have exhausted more Patriot interceptors in the first five days of the war than can be produced in the next year.
Concern in Taiwan and South Korea
It is not only Ukraine watching the Middle East conflict with concern, as Patriot air defense systems are also utilized by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, it is not just the Patriot but also THAAD systems causing alarm. Iran's arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones pales in comparison to that of China, which possesses ballistic missiles, ICBMs, hypersonic cruise missiles, and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). Additionally, North Korea maintains a significant ICBM arsenal.
Iranians destroying THAAD, Americans taking them from S. Korea
Amid reports that Iran has targeted multiple THAAD batteries in the Middle East, there are claims that the US has begun transferring parts of the system, along with other military equipment, from South Korea for deployment in the war against Iran. American media reported that the Pentagon is moving parts of a THAAD system to the Middle East, citing two officials. Currently, there are only 10 THAAD systems worldwide. The US operates seven of them; two were sold to the United Arab Emirates, and one THAAD battery is located in Saudi Arabia. According to unconfirmed reports, Iran has targeted four different THAAD batteries. Plans to transfer the THAAD system from South Korea to the Middle East have raised doubts about Donald Trump's security commitment to South Korea.
The threat
The rushed transfer of the THAAD system—which had paradoxically been deployed in South Korea despite strong protests from local communities—has left the liberal South Korean President, Lee Jae Myung, attempting to reassure the public that the country can deter threats from the North, even if the US redeploys weapons and other military assets to the Middle East. Noting that Seoul had opposed the repositioning of American artillery and air defense units, Lee said during a cabinet meeting: "If I am asked whether this will seriously affect our deterrence strategy against North Korea, I can say with certainty that it will not," the Guardian reported.
Russia's lesson for the US
However, if the war in Iran is prolonged, US allies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe will feel increasingly insecure. Russia's involvement in the Ukraine war meant it could not protect its interests in Syria, Venezuela, Armenia, Libya, Cuba, and Iran. The Kremlin may have gained ground in Ukraine, but its global influence has significantly diminished. There are concerns that the US may have committed a similar error in Iran. It may dismantle Tehran's ballistic missile program and Navy, but it leaves Ukraine and South Korea without defense against far more dangerous adversaries.
Macron questions Trump: Iran maintains its forces
French President Emmanuel Macron stated he had "no confirmation" that Iran is placing minefields in the Strait of Hormuz. "I have no confirmation of this, neither from partner services nor from our own services," Macron said after a video call with G7 leaders. Macron added that Iran's military capabilities have been weakened but not "reduced to zero" by US and Israeli attacks. "Significant damage has already been caused to Iran's military ballistic capabilities, but it continues to attack many countries in the region, and therefore its capabilities have not been reduced to zero," he stated. He added that he leaves it to US President Donald Trump to "clarify both his final goals and the pace he wants to give to the operations" launched with Israel on February 28. Meanwhile, Trump told Axios that there is "practically nothing" left to target in Iran and that the war there will end "soon." "Any time I want it to end, it will end," said the American president.
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